The BRICS bloc — originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — has undergone significant transformation over the last twelve months. In August 2023, the group extended invitations to six nations: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). By January 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE had officially joined, while Saudi Arabia and Argentina selected different paths regarding their membership. The BRICS-11 ultimately wound up the BRICS-10.
Saudi Arabia’s potential membership has been a subject of considerable discussion. Despite receiving an invitation to join BRICS, the kingdom has taken a cautious approach, opting to assess the implications thoroughly before making a formal commitment. As of February 2025, Saudi Arabia remains engaged with BRICS activities but has not yet formalized its membership, reflecting its strategic considerations in balancing relationships with both Western nations and BRICS members.
In contrast, Argentina experienced a significant policy shift regarding its association with BRICS. Initially invited to join the bloc, Argentina was set to become a full member on January 1, 2024. However, following the election of President Javier Milei in November 2023, the new administration reassessed this decision. Citing a realignment of foreign policy priorities, Argentina officially announced its withdrawal from the BRICS membership process on December 29, 2023, just days before its membership was to commence.
Beyond its full members, BRICS has established a network of partner countries, granting nine additional nations a special status. These include Algeria, Nigeria, Uganda, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Bolivia. Nigeria’s inclusion as a partner country in January 2025 underscores the bloc’s growing focus on Africa, a continent rich in resources and economic potential. With its vast population and increasing political influence, Nigeria could become a full member in the coming years.
The expansion of BRICS carries significant economic implications. Collectively, the bloc’s members now account for a substantial portion of global GDP and represent over half of the world’s population. By expanding its membership, BRICS is positioning itself as a more inclusive and powerful alternative to Western-led financial institutions. Member nations have increasingly expressed interest in reducing reliance on the US dollar, exploring alternative payment systems, and strengthening trade relations within the bloc.
Efforts toward de-dollarization have been a focal point for BRICS nations. In October 2024, during the BRICS summit in Kazan, members discussed the development of BRICS Pay, a decentralized payment messaging system aimed at facilitating transactions in local currencies. This initiative seeks to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade. In tandem with these efforts, central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against dollar exposure. In 2024, central banks collectively added 1,045 metric tons to global gold reserves, marking the third consecutive year that annual purchases exceeded 1,000 metric tons. Notably, the National Bank of Poland led with an addition of 90 tons, while emerging market banks also contributed significantly to this trend. This surge in gold accumulation aligns with BRICS’s strategy to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar.
These developments lend credence to the Bretton Woods III scenario, which envisions a new global financial order centered around commodity-based currencies and reduced dollar dominance. Three factors contribute to this plausibility:
1. Diversification of Reserves: BRICS nations and other countries are actively increasing their gold holdings, signaling a shift towards commodity-backed assets and away from dollar-centric reserves.
2. Alternative Payment Systems: The creation of BRICS Pay exemplifies efforts to establish financial infrastructures that bypass traditional dollar-based systems, facilitating trade in local currencies.
3. Geopolitical Realignments: The expansion of BRICS to include diverse economies indicates a collective move towards a multipolar world, challenging the unipolarity of dollar hegemony.
Geopolitically, the new BRICS lineup represents a broader shift toward multipolarity. The inclusion of oil-rich nations such as the UAE and Iran could alter energy markets, while the growing African and Asian presence in BRICS gives the organization a stronger foothold in regions traditionally influenced by Western powers. Countries like India and China, which often compete for regional influence, must now navigate a more complex dynamic within the expanded group, balancing cooperation with national interests.
Despite its ambitions, BRICS faces challenges in unifying its diverse membership. With significant economic and political differences between its members, achieving consensus on major policy issues remains difficult. While countries such as China and Russia favor a stronger, more coordinated BRICS, others, like Brazil and India, prefer a looser economic alliance that does not challenge their traditional diplomatic ties with the West. The bloc’s long-term success will depend on its ability to balance these competing interests while advancing its broader economic and political goals.
Looking ahead, BRICS is expected to continue expanding its influence through further economic partnerships and new trade agreements. The possibility of introducing a common currency or digital payment system remains a topic of discussion, particularly among nations seeking to reduce dependence on the dollar. As the global economic landscape shifts, BRICS will play an increasingly important role in shaping international trade, finance, and diplomacy. Whether it can effectively challenge Western economic dominance remains to be seen, but its rapid expansion suggests that its influence will only continue to grow.
The recent expansion of BRICS, now encompassing nations such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, has raised questions about its potential impact on existing alliances like NATO and the Organization of American States (OAS). While BRICS’s growth signifies a shift towards a multipolar world order, it does not yet directly undermine the memberships of NATO or the OAS. However, the inclusion of countries like Iran and the UAE into BRICS introduces new dynamics that could influence global geopolitical alignments.
Iran’s membership may affect the bloc’s relations with Western nations, potentially leading to shifts in diplomatic and economic engagements. Similarly, the UAE’s participation in BRICS could prompt a reevaluation of its strategic partnerships, balancing its traditional Western alliances with its new commitments within the BRICS framework. These developments suggest a complex interplay between emerging and established alliances, reflecting the evolving nature of global power structures.
The expansion of BRICS and its de-dollarization efforts carry significant implications for the United States over the next two decades. A concerted move by BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade could diminish the dollar’s global dominance. This shift might lead to decreased demand for dollars, potentially resulting in a weaker currency. While a weaker dollar could make US exports more competitive, it may also lead to higher import prices, contributing to domestic inflation. Additionally, reduced global demand for dollar-denominated assets could increase borrowing costs, impacting everything from government debt to consumer loans.
The strengthening of BRICS and its appeal to the Global South suggest a shift toward a more multipolar world order. As BRICS nations collaborate more closely, they may offer alternative economic and political partnerships, potentially reducing US influence in various regions. This realignment could affect global trade agreements, security alliances, and diplomatic relations, necessitating a reassessment of US foreign policy to maintain its strategic interests.
In response to these global developments, US policymakers might adopt measures such as tariffs or sanctions to protect economic interests. For instance, President Donald Trump has threatened significant tariffs on BRICS countries if they pursue an alternative currency to the dollar. Such actions could lead to trade wars, affecting American consumers through higher prices and impacting industries reliant on international markets.
President Trump’s proposal to implement reciprocal tariffs — matching the tariffs that other countries impose on US goods — could significantly alter trade dynamics between the United States and BRICS nations. This approach challenges the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) principle of “most-favored-nation” (MFN) status, which requires member countries to apply the same tariff rates to all trading partners. By introducing country-specific tariffs, the US risks undermining this multilateral framework, potentially prompting BRICS countries to strengthen their economic ties and establish preferential trade agreements among themselves. Such agreements could effectively create a new version of MFN status within the BRICS bloc, prioritizing intra-BRICS trade and potentially excluding the US from favorable terms. This shift may lead to the formation of alternative economic alliances, reducing US influence in global trade and impacting American businesses that rely on international markets.
Moreover, the threat of substantial tariffs, such as the proposed 100 percent levy on imports from BRICS nations, could incentivize these countries to expedite efforts toward de-dollarization and the development of alternative financial systems. By reducing dependence on the US dollar and creating their own payment mechanisms, BRICS nations aim to insulate their economies from US economic policies and potential sanctions.
This realignment could diminish the dollar’s dominance in global trade, potentially leading to decreased demand for US currency and assets, which may have long-term implications for the American economy, including increased borrowing costs and inflationary pressures. The evolving dynamics of BRICS, coupled with proposed US tariff policies, could influence the US economy, alter geopolitical balances, and prompt significant policy responses, all of which may directly or indirectly impact Americans in the coming decades.
